What do economists say about war and peace?

In this context, it is important to acknowledge the historical precedents of long-lasting peace, such as the Pax Romana, which Nobel Laureate Robert Aumann referenced when discussing peace-building models. Aumann is an American Israeli mathematician who was awarded the prize in 2005 for “having enhanced our understanding of conflict and cooperation through game-theory analysis.” By combining game theory and psychology, Aumann’s work has asked the question, ‘Can game theory end world conflict?’

Aumann’s ideas can provide a framework for understanding the importance of strategic thinking in peacebuilding, but they also underscore the need for global cooperation. When he spoke of what he referred to as the “world champions of peace,” such as Switzerland and ancient Rome, he pointed out that lasting peace often emerges from a carefully managed balance of power and preparation.

“If you want peace, prepare for war,” says Aumann. While Aumann's perspective might appear to contrast with the idealism of a culture of peace, it reveals an important reality about incentives in maintaining peace. Historical examples show that peace is not always passive-it often requires preparation, strategic thinking, and deterrence. “Si vis pacem, para bellum,” he says, translating into Italian his earlier thought. “That is what brought about the Roman peace, that was the model. The Pax Romana lasted for over 230 years.”

Aumann's insights from game theory expound the strategic foundations of peace, where mutual understanding and rational incentives can lead to cooperative outcomes even among adversaries. These are valuable lessons for contemporary peacebuilding initiatives as well as the mechanisms can be harnessed to encourage collaboration and support rather than conflict.