2025 Trends.

 

• Global stability has deteriorated over the past 17 years, marked by substantial increases in political instability, the number and intensity of conflicts, deaths from conflict, and increasing geopolitical fragmentation.

• Peace has deteriorated every year since 2014. Over this period, 100 countries deteriorated and only 62 improved.

• The gap between the most and least peaceful countries continues to grow, with ‘peace inequality’ widening by 11.7 per cent in the past two decades. The 25 most peaceful countries deteriorated by 0.5 per cent, while the least peaceful deteriorated by 12.2 per cent.

• Two of the three GPI domains have deteriorated since 2008, with Ongoing Conflict and Safety and Security deteriorating by 17.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent, respectively. Only the Militarisation domain improved, with peacefulness increasing on that domain by 2.7 per cent.

• Though the Militarisation domain improved since 2008, that trend has begun to reverse over the last five years as many countries respond to an increasing number of threats and rising geopolitical uncertainty.

• Conversely, although the Safety and Security domain deteriorated, several indicators have shown sustained improvement, most notably the homicide rate and perceptions of criminality indicators.

• Across the 23 GPI indicators, external conflicts fought and internal conflicts fought had the largest deteriorations. This reflects not only the spread of conflict around the world, but the increasing involvement of external actors in civil conflicts.

• Deaths from internal conflict increased by over 438 per cent in the past 17 years, with 75 countries recording at least one conflict death in the past year.

• Around the world, there are now over 122 million people that have been forcibly displaced. There are now 17 countries where more than five per cent of the population are either refugees or have been internally displaced. The number of people forcibly displaced has increased by over 185 per cent since the inception of the GPI.

• Eight of the ten largest weapons exporters on a per capita basis are Western democracies, including France, Sweden, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany and Norway.

• In the past 17 years, more countries deteriorated on violent demonstrations than any other indicator, with 109 deteriorating and only 23 improving. The rise of technology was a critical enabler of global protests and mass mobilisation.

• Global economic stagnation, increasing debt, and the weaponisation of economic interdependence via trade wars, are key factors shaping the economic landscape of geopolitics in the 21st century.

• Geopolitical fragmentation is rising, with levels now exceeding those seen during the Cold War. The rise in fragmentation has been especially noticeable since 2008, after it had been steadily decreasing since the end of the Cold War.

• Global trade has plateaued at around 60 per cent of global GDP over the past decade, following rapid growth after 1990. 

• Global military spending hit a record $2.7 trillion in 2024, a nine per cent increase from the previous year, driven largely by conflicts such as the war in Ukraine.

 Competition for influence is intensifying in regions like Africa, South Asia and South America. In the Sahel, instability and scarce resources are drawing in rival powers and fuelling a complex struggle

for control.

• The number of globally influential countries has nearly tripled since the Cold War, rising from 13 to 34 by 2023, with nations like Türkiye, the UAE, Vietnam, South Africa, Brazil and Indonesia expanding their influence