Identifying and measuring the factors that drive peace.

 

This is the 19th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness, covering 99.7 per cent of the world’s population. Produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. It uses 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators to measure the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. The 2025 GPI finds that global peacefulness continues to decline and that many of the leading factors that precede major conflicts are higher than they have been since the end of WWII. More countries are increasing their levels of militarisation against the backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions, increasing conflict, the breakup of traditional alliances and rising economic uncertainty. There are currently 59 active state-based conflicts, the most since the end of WWII and three more than the prior year. Last year, 17 countries recorded over 1,000 conflict deaths. Additionally, the successful resolution of conflicts is lower than at any point in the last 50 years. Conflicts that ended in a decisive victory fell from 49 per cent in the 1970s to nine per cent in the 2010s, while conflicts that ended through peace agreements fell from 23 per cent to four per cent over the same period. Conflicts are also becoming more internationalised, making solutions more difficult; 78 countries are engaged in a conflict beyond their borders. This increased involvement is driven by geopolitical fragmentation, increasing major power competition, and the rise in influence of middle level powers, who are becoming more active within their regions. The almost two-decade long trend of falling militarisation has also reversed, with 106 countries having deteriorated on the Militarisation domain in the past two years. This year’s results found that the average level of global peacefulness deteriorated by 0.36 per cent. This is the 13th deterioration in peacefulness in the last 17 years, with 74 countries improving and 87 deteriorating in peacefulness. Iceland remains the most peaceful country in the world, a position it has held since 2008. It is joined at the top of the index by Ireland, Austria, New Zealand and Switzerland. All of these countries, other than Switzerland, were also ranked among the ten most peaceful countries in the first year of the index. These countries have high Positive Peace ratings, underscoring the resilience created by high levels of Positive Peace. Russia, for the first time, is the least peaceful country in the world on the 2025 GPI, followed by Ukraine, Sudan, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Yemen. Western and Central Europe is the most peaceful region in the world, home to eight of the ten most peaceful countries, although its peacefulness has been falling over the last four years. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remains the world’s least peaceful region. South Asia, the second least peaceful region globally, experienced the largest regional decline in peacefulness. This deterioration was driven primarily by repressive measures in Bangladesh under the Hasina government, and by heightened civil unrest and escalating internal and cross-border tensions in Pakistan. South America was the only region in the world to record an improvement in peacefulness last year. Seven of the 11 countries in the region improved, with the largest improvements occurring in Peru and Argentina. Both countries recorded changes in government in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Of the 23 indicators in the GPI, eight recorded improvements, 13 deteriorated, and two recorded no change. The Militarisation and Ongoing Conflict domains both deteriorated, while the Safety and Security domain recorded a slight improvement. The largest year-on-year deteriorations occurred on the external conflicts fought, deaths from internal conflict, and military expenditure (% of GDP) indicators. The deterioration on the military expenditure (% of GDP) indicator reflects the deterioration on the Militarisation domain more broadly. Despite the overall deterioration in peacefulness globally, some indicators recorded noticeable improvement. The perceptions of criminality and homicide rate indicators both continued their long running trend of improvement. The violent demonstrations indicator also improved, although it has deteriorated for 12 of the past 17 years. There were substantial improvements for many Safety and Security indicators, including violent demonstrations, terrorism impact and the homicide rate. Several countries in the Central and North America region recorded significant reductions in the number of homicides, although the region still has the highest average homicide rate of any region. 

The world has become less peaceful over the past 17 years, with the average country score deteriorating by 5.4 per cent since the index’s inception in 2008. Of the 163 countries in the GPI, 94 recorded deteriorations, while 66 recorded improvements and one recorded no change. Seventeen of the 23 GPI indicators deteriorated between 2008 and 2023, while seven improved.


Two of the three GPI domains deteriorated since 2008, with Ongoing Conflict deteriorating by 17.5 per cent and Safety and Security deteriorating by 2.5 per cent. Militarisation was the only domain to improve, although this trend has reversed over the past four years. Some of the largest indicator deteriorations were for external conflicts fought, internal conflicts fought, and the number of refugees and IDPs. The past year has seen some major shifts in international affairs. 

The 2025 GPI report looks at these structural trends to provide a better insight into contemporary factors that affect conflict: 

• Geopolitical fragmentation has substantially increased. This is most noticeable on the relations between neighbouring states indicator, which has substantially deteriorated since 2008, with 59 countries recording poorer ties with neighbours while only 19 improved. 

• There have been notable reductions in global integration for economics, trade, diplomacy and military cooperation. They have been steadily falling since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. 

• The rising wealth of many countries means that they have the economic power for expanded international influence, especially within their local regions. • Global trade as a share of global GDP has flatlined for the last decade at roughly 60 per cent, while restrictive trade practices rose to more than 3,000 in 2023, nearly triple the 2019 figure. 

• Developing countries spend an average of 42 per cent of government revenue on servicing debt. The largest creditor is China. 

• Expenditure on peacebuilding and peacekeeping was just 0.52 per cent of total military spending in 2024, compared to 0.83 per cent ten years ago. The number of deployed peacekeeping troops has also fallen by 42 per cent over the past decade, while the number of conflicts has risen steadily. 

• Every nuclear-armed state has held or expanded its arsenal since 2022, and great-power rivalry is fuelling an arms race in advanced technologies, from AIenabled drones to counter-space systems. 

• Internationalised intrastate conflicts, in which foreign troops fight inside another state, have increased 175 per cent since 2010, drawing 78 countries into wars beyond their borders. 

There are now 34 countries who are considered to have substantial influence in another country, up from six in the 1970s. Combined with the US and China having reached or being near the limits of their influence, the world is moving into the age of ‘global power fragmentation’. China’s gross debt, estimated at approximately 300 per cent of GDP, alongside signs of a significant asset bubble, draws parallels with Japan’s economic conditions in the late1980 .
More power will shift to rising middle economies while most western powers struggle economically. How this power dynamic unfolds, and its effect on conflict, remains to be seen. To better understand why violent conflicts can intensify rapidly, IEP identified nine conflict escalation factors, ranging from external military support and logistics, to ethnic exclusion and conflict instrumentalisation. These drivers were decisive in historic escalations. Based on the presence of these factors, current conflicts that have the potential to substantially escalate are South Sudan, Ethiopia/Eritrea, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Syria. The economic impact of violence on the global economy in 2024 was $19.97 trillion in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. This figure is equivalent to 11.6 per cent of the world’s economic activity (gross world product), or $2,446 per person. Military and internal security expenditure accounts for over 74 per cent of the figure, with the impact of military spending alone accounting for $9 trillion in PPP terms the past year. In Europe, adequate military expenditure is essential to meet emerging threats. However, Europe’s major challenge is not increasing military expenditure. It must also increase the efficiency, integration and cohesiveness of its military efforts. European NATO states outspend Moscow by a wide margin, yet their combined military capability only modestly exceeds Russia’s. More raw military expenditure will not solve this. Additionally, many European countries are experiencing increasing polarisation, and military expenditure crowds out investment in other productive areas including education, health and business development. Items that underpin social cohesion. Given the size of the budget outlays the societal trade-offs need to be carefully considered. In summary, the international order is approaching a tipping point where rising economic fragmentation, accelerating rearmament and multiple competing spheres of influence are creating the conditions for the onset of large-scale conflict, and the associated economic destruction. Underscoring this is the sheer volume and geographic spread of currently active conflicts, alongside reductions in proactive conflict prevention initiatives, including reductions in funding for peacebuilding and development aid. The key to building peacefulness in times of conflict and uncertainty is Positive Peace: the attitudes, institutions and structures that create and sustain peaceful societies. Positive Peace is strongly correlated with higher GDP growth, lower interest rates, societal wellbeing and more resilience to shocks. Although levels of Positive Peace improved for over a decade up to 2019, they have since been in decline, including in both North America and Europe. Without adequate investment, further deterioration in peacefulness appears likely.

Read the full report!