Why Conflicts Escalate?


Global Peace Index 2025


 • The world is facing a violent conflict crisis. There were 59 state-based conflicts in 2023, the highest number since the end of World War II. 

• Deaths from state-based violent conflict reached a 32-year high in 2022. Although the number of deaths is below levels seen during the Cold War, the sheer number of active conflicts increases the risk of at least one conflict rapidly escalating. 

• Fewer violent conflicts now end with a peace deal or clear victory. Since the 1970s, the percentage of conflicts that end with a clear victory has dropped from 49 per cent to nine per cent, while the proportion of conflicts ending in peace agreements has fallen from 23 per cent to four per cent. 

• The number of internationalised intrastate conflicts have increased 175 per cent since 2010. Seventy-eight countries were directly involved in a war beyond their borders in 2023. 

• IEP has identified nine major factors which increase the likelihood that conflict will increase in intensity or severity. 

• These factors have played a key role historically in increasing the severity of conflict, including in the Spanish, Greek, and Sri Lankan civil wars, the ongoing conflict in Sudan, and Ethiopia’s recent Tigray war. 

• IEP was able to assess the strength of these nine factors for 62 state-based conflict dyads. Of these 62 conflicts, 22 per cent had at least one escalation factor with the maximum possible score of five, and all 62 dyads had at least one escalation factor with a score of at least three out of five, indicating that it had a significant escalation risk.

 • The risk of conflict escalation can clearly be seen when looking at the conflict in Kashmir. An April 2025 terror attack in the region sparked reprisals and halted dialogue, bringing nuclear-armed India and Pakistan closer to open war. 

• Countries facing the highest conflict risk factors are the Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Syria, and the ongoing conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea. All have current conflicts that could become substantially worse. 


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Inauguration of Peace Operations Review Week and launch of the key findings from the Challenges Annual Forum 2025.

Image
The Permanent Missions of Ghana and Sweden to the United Nations in New York, in collaboration with the International Forum for the Challenges of Peace Operations ( Challenges Forum ) and the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre are pleased to invite to a launch of the key findings from the Challenges Annual Forum 2025 (CAF25) held in Accra, Ghana. The launch will also serve as official opening of the Peace Operations Review Week taking place in New York on 5-7 November 2025. Related Documents:  Concept note . Watch the Inauguration of Peace Operations Review Week and launch of the key findings from the Challenges Annual Forum 2025! Meetings & Events
Read more

How peace drives economic growth?

Image
 In today’s world, where conflicts and economic inequalities intersect in complex ways, The pursuit of peace is not just a moral imperative but an essential condition for sustainable development. The link between peace and economic growth is symbiotic: peace builds up stable economies , while economic instability fuels social unrest. Amid mounting geopolitical strains, the 1999 Declaration’s emphasis on respect for life, human rights, non-violence, justice, democracy, and cultural diversity underscores their critical role in sustaining and advancing global stability .
Read more

Secretary-General's Common Pledge on Women's Participation in Peace Processes.

Image
The objective of this high-level meeting is to hear from women who have shaped peace processes as negotiators, civil society activists and mediators, and to showcase how Adopters of the Common Pledge are moving from commitment to concrete implementation across the Pledge's four commitment areas. The year 2025 marks the 25th anniversary of UN Security Council resolution 1325 (2000) and the women, peace and security (WPS) agenda as well as the 30th anniversary of the (1995) Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action. Despite significant progress in advancing parts of these commitments, one of the most persistent challenges remains the continuously low levels of participation by women in peace and mediation processes. According to a frequently cited study, between the years 1992 and 2019, women constituted only 13 per cent of negotiators and six per cent of mediators in major peace processes. The Secretary-General's Common Pledge to Increase Women's Full, Equal, and Meaningf...
Read more